Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of Southeast Arizona this week as a cooler pattern moves into the region. Forecasts identify Monday and Wednesday as likely to be among the most active days, though coverage and intensity will vary from one day to the next and from place to place across the area. The outlook also points to an uptick in storm activity again beginning Friday and continuing into the coming weekend.
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A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the region for Monday, underscoring the potential for heavier rain with some storms. The watch is in effect Monday afternoon through 10 p.m. for Pima and Santa Cruz counties and emphasizes an elevated risk for flooding where thunderstorms train over the same locations. Forecast graphics accompanying the watch note the possibility of localized 1–2 inches of rainfall and warn of flash flooding Monday afternoon through 10 PM.
Flood-watch graphic for Southern Arizona showing Tucson and surrounding areas in the watch area, warning of possible 1–2” of rain and flash flooding Monday afternoon through 10 PM.
Storm coverage is not expected to be uniform across Southern Arizona. While some communities could see widespread thunderstorm activity on the most active days, other locations may only experience scattered showers. Meteorological guidance indicates that intensity will fluctuate, with the heavier thunderstorms carrying the greatest risk for localized downpours and flooding during their passages. The forecast pattern brings daily opportunities for convective development, meaning that even on days with lower overall coverage, strong storms remain possible in isolated areas.
Temperatures will trend noticeably lower through the week after highs that ran above normal over the weekend. Afternoon readings on Sunday were forecast to be roughly 5 to 8 degrees above average, but model guidance shows a drop back to near-normal levels for Monday and Tuesday. A further cooldown is expected Wednesday and Thursday, when highs could run about 3 to 6 degrees below normal, before a gradual rebound in temperatures later in the week.
Temperature map across Arizona highlighting cooler highs in Southern Arizona — Tucson shown at 63°F — illustrating the cooler conditions tied to increased storm chances.
Morning temperatures will reflect that shift as well, with parts of Pima County starting the day relatively warm and other sectors noticeably cooler. Monday morning is expected to begin with many Pima County communities in the upper 70s, and Tucson’s overnight low is forecast near 79 degrees. By contrast, areas across Cochise County will be cooler, with a number of communities waking up in the 60s; Sierra Vista’s low is forecast near 67 degrees.
The coming days present a varied weather setup across Southern Arizona: multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, certain days with heightened activity, and an official flood watch signaling an increased hazard for parts of the region on Monday. Temperatures will dip from above-normal values into readings at or below typical seasonal levels before moderating again as the week progresses.
As storms developed Monday, the National Weather Service in Tucson (@NWSTucson) issued multiple flash flood warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings for locations including Rio Rico, Childs, and Eloy, with reports of heavy rain, gusts to 70 mph, and ongoing flooding risks.
National Weather Service Tucson radar indicated 1–2 inches of rain fell between Green Valley and Corona de Tucson during the Monday storms, with flash flooding reported in Box Canyon Wash, along the Santa Cruz River and Demetrie Wash; the warning specifically cited impacts to Interstate 19 between mile markers 33 and 47.
After the heaviest rain eased, the NWS canceled some flash flood warnings for portions of eastern Santa Cruz County, and local authorities — including the Pima County Regional Flood Control District — used their MyAlerts system and interactive alert map to provide near‑real‑time streamflow, road closure and flood notifications to residents.