Morning clouds and a few light sprinkles over the region are expected to break up through the first half of the day, leaving mostly sunny skies for much of southern Arizona before storm development later in the day. A pattern of late-afternoon and evening thunderstorm development is forecast to continue, with daytime heating followed by convective growth shifting into the evening hours. Residents should plan for a quieter, drier start to the day before thunderstorms fire up again toward late afternoon and into the night.
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Thunderstorm development is forecast to begin to the east of the metropolitan area in the afternoon and then gradually progress toward Tucson as the evening advances. The activity is not expected to begin until later in the day, meaning the highest storm threat will be in the late afternoon through the evening, rather than during the morning or early afternoon. That timing — a later start to storm activity — is a consistent feature in the short-term forecast and should guide evening commute and outdoor plans.
The storms moving into the region are capable of producing severe outflow winds that can generate areas of blowing dust. Those strong gusts, produced by downdrafts spreading horizontally at the surface, can reduce visibility rapidly and create hazardous driving conditions. In addition to damaging wind potential, any of the stronger thunderstorm cells could drop locally heavy rainfall over short periods, increasing the chance for sudden runoff and isolated flash flooding, particularly in low-lying urban areas, washes and canyons.
Although the activity is expected to be scattered and will vary from day to day, thunderstorm chances will be present each afternoon and evening through the week. Day-to-day variability means some neighborhoods will see nothing while others could experience significant storms; the pattern is one of intermittent convective development rather than a broad, lasting rain event across the entire region. Residents should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions during evening hours and monitor updates if planning travel or outdoor activities.
High temperatures across the area are forecast to remain a few degrees above normal through the weekend. That slightly warmer-than-average air mass will continue to support the energy needed for afternoon and evening thunderstorm development. While temperatures will be elevated compared with seasonal norms, the primary hazards over the coming days will be tied to storm behavior — strong gusts, blowing dust and heavy downpours capable of producing localized flash flooding — rather than a prolonged heat event.
Local counties will see similar late-afternoon and evening storm risks. Forecast graphics indicate heavier cells developing over southern Arizona with notable activity near Tucson, Nogales and Sierra Vista during the late-afternoon and evening time frame. Those heavier cells are the primary focus for potential severe gusts and localized heavy rain, and communities in the south and southeast parts of the state should keep an eye on evolving radar returns as storms develop and move.
The forecast and short-term outlook were prepared by meteorologist April Madison. For the most current information, residents are encouraged to check the hourly forecast, the seven-day outlook, live radar and any active weather alerts that may be issued. These tools will provide the latest timing and location of thunderstorm development, updates on wind and rainfall threats, and any warnings that could be posted for flash flooding or severe winds.
Additional weather resources and climatology information are available for those tracking conditions, including current temperatures across southern Arizona, today's expected highs and lows, dew point readings and precipitation data for Tucson and the state. Drought-monitoring products and short- and long-term precipitation deficit graphics provide broader context for how recent rainfall fits into seasonal and annual trends. Those data sets can be consulted for further detail on how this week’s storms may affect local precipitation totals and drought conditions.
Early on August 6, the National Weather Service issued and extended dust storm warnings for State Highway 86 in Pima County and nearby stretches of I-10, as strong outflows from southern Arizona thunderstorms reduced visibility overnight and into the morning. Similar impacts reached the Phoenix metro, highlighting the ongoing hazards from this monsoon pattern.
Early on August 6, 2026 the National Weather Service in Tucson issued multiple Flood Advisories after radar and automated gauges showed heavy overnight rainfall — in places between about 1.5 and 2.7 inches — with minor flooding already occurring in washes and low‑lying areas; the advisories explicitly covered locations near Tucson, Vail and Benson and included stretches of Interstate 10 and other regional highways.
Late on August 5 into the early hours of August 6 the NWS also issued multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for parts of Cochise, Pima and Santa Cruz counties citing radar‑indicated wind gusts up to about 60 mph and up to 1.00‑inch hail, with warned areas and impacted highways including communities such as Bisbee, Sierra Vista and Benson and portions of Route 86 and I‑10.