Meteorologists are forecasting the hottest temperatures of 2026 so far for southern Arizona as the new workweek begins, with Tucson expected to reach highs near 109 degrees on both Tuesday and Wednesday. That surge in heat has prompted the National Weather Service to issue an Extreme Heat Warning for much of southern Arizona beginning at 10 a.m. Tuesday and continuing through 8 p.m. Wednesday. Officials have also designated Tuesday and Wednesday as First Alert Weather Days to highlight the elevated heat risks for the population during that period.
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Broadcast map highlighting an Extreme Heat Warning across much of southern Arizona — graphic explicitly excludes Santa Cruz and Cochise counties, matching the article’s warning in effect Tuesday 10 a.m. through Wednesday 8 p.m.
The heat advisory does not include Cochise County and Santa Cruz County; those areas are outside the warning area. Temperatures are forecast to remain above seasonal normals even after the peak midweek heat has passed. Monday is expected to be very warm with a high near 107 degrees, followed by the midweek high surge. Overnight lows through the week will remain relatively warm, generally hovering around the upper 70s to low 80s.
While heat will dominate the early and middle part of the week, forecast models show increasing moisture moving into the region as the workweek progresses. Precipitation chances first appear east of Tucson, affecting parts of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. That initial increase in moisture is expected to gradually spread west, bringing low chances for rain into the Tucson area on Tuesday and Wednesday before more substantial storm chances later in the week.
First Alert forecast screen showing scattered precipitation moving into southeastern Arizona, illustrating the article’s note that increasing moisture will bring low storm chances into the region later in the week.
By Thursday and Friday, moisture is expected to become more widespread across southern Arizona, increasing the likelihood of thunderstorms. Forecasters say these storms could produce strong, gusty winds, with gusts of 40 to 50+ miles per hour possible. Those winds raise the risk of blowing dust in vulnerable areas. As moisture continues to increase heading into the weekend, forecasters shift their concern toward heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and flash flooding late in the week and over the weekend.
The First Alert seven-day outlook provides a day-by-day snapshot of the expected pattern. Monday will be mostly sunny with a high near 107 and an overnight low around 80. Tuesday is forecast to be sunny with a high near 109, followed by a mostly cloudy Tuesday night with a 10% chance of rain and a low near 81. Wednesday again looks to reach about 109 degrees with another 10% rain chance during the day; Wednesday night will be partly cloudy with that rain chance edging up to about 20% and a low near 81.
Thursday’s forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of rain and storms and a high near 107, with Thursday night remaining mostly cloudy and a 20% rain chance and a low near 78. Friday’s high is expected to ease into the low 100s—near 103—with mostly sunny skies and a 10% chance of rain. Overnight Friday into Saturday holds a 20% rain chance and a low near 78. The weekend shows continued modest rain chances: Saturday is forecast partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain and a high near 102, rising to a 30% chance Saturday night with a low around 77. Sunday remains partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain and a high near 103.
Residents and visitors across southern Arizona are being urged to plan for extreme heat early to midweek, especially during the hottest hours of the day, and to stay alert for changing conditions as moisture increases later in the week. The transition from extreme heat to a more unsettled pattern with gusty winds, blowing dust, and later potential flooding highlights a rapid change in hazards over the coming days. Monitor updates from local weather services for any changes to warnings or watches as storm probabilities and timing evolve.
Recent updates from the National Weather Service indicate moisture has already begun increasing east of Tucson overnight due to thunderstorm outflows from New Mexico. This is bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with threats of strong winds over 50 mph and blowing dust as of Monday. (@NWSTucson)
The National Weather Service office in Tucson’s official warning text notes afternoon temperatures could reach up to 111°F during the warning period (Tuesday 10 a.m. through Wednesday 8 p.m.), a bit higher than some local forecast numbers.
Pima County is operating a seasonal 'Beat the Heat' cooling-center map and heat-relief resources this summer, and the City of Tucson lists free cooling centers (generally open noon–4 p.m. through August 31); residents who need a ride to a cooling or respite site can arrange transportation by calling 2‑1‑1.
In its detailed products the NWS specifies that the strongest thunderstorm wind gusts — in excess of 50 mph — are most likely east of a Safford-to-Willcox line, emphasizing those eastern Graham/Greenlee areas as the highest wind-risk zones.