Weeks of decline in gasoline prices across the country have come to an end as uncertainty surrounding the future of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran has weighed on markets, a spokesman said. Locally, the picture is mixed: statewide averages in Arizona have edged lower since early July, but drivers in some cities are already seeing small upticks at the pump.
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The statewide average for a gallon of regular-grade gasoline in Arizona is down seven cents compared with the week that began July 2, according to figures released by the motorist organization that monitors prices. That drop reflects an overall softening in some parts of the state even as broader national momentum shifted away from successive weekly declines.
In the Phoenix metropolitan area, however, recent movement among individual stations has not been uniform. Many Tempe stations reported prices around $3.69 per gallon for regular, a modest rise compared with some nearby areas. The variation between stations and neighborhoods illustrates how statewide averages can mask diverging conditions at individual pumps.
Circle K price sign in Arizona showing $3.59 per gallon for unleaded, illustrating local pump prices as Arizona averages slide.
Within the broader Valley, the week brought a modest overall decline in retail prices: one commonly used local measure fell by roughly 10 cents per gallon over the seven-day span. Those changes were reflected in signage at neighborhood stations and can translate into only a few dollars in savings for a full tank, depending on vehicle size and filling habits.
Circle K roadside sign in Arizona displaying $4.34 per gallon for unleaded, highlighting variation in local gas prices across the state.
Market watchers point to geopolitical uncertainty tied to the ceasefire as a disruptive element for futures and wholesale markets, which in turn flow through to retail pricing. That uncertainty, paired with day-to-day movement in supply and demand, pushed a sequence of weekly declines on pause even as some Arizona drivers benefited from small localized drops.
For now, Arizona drivers face a mix: the statewide average for regular gasoline has fallen seven cents since the early July reference point, but local stations, especially in Tempe, are at or near prices that are slightly higher than in surrounding neighborhoods. Consumers navigating the market will continue to see differences from station to station as wholesale and geopolitical factors play out in the weeks ahead.
President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire "over" this week after Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz triggered new strikes, prompting the national average to climb 5 cents overnight to $3.84 as of July 9 with further rises to $3.88 reported by July 10, according to AAA and local news sources including WISH-TV and WFDD.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s July Short‑Term Energy Outlook says shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has increased and it now expects global crude output and trade flows to rebound to near pre‑conflict levels by year‑end, with most previously shut‑in production restored by early 2027; the report projects the U.S. average retail gasoline price will be about $3.60 per gallon in the second half of 2026, and it forecasts Brent crude to average about $74 per barrel in Q3 2026 and roughly $65 per barrel in 2027.
EIA’s weekly petroleum data for the week ending July 3 show a surprise crude build of about 3.0 million barrels, bringing U.S. commercial crude inventories to roughly 411.4 million barrels, while total motor gasoline stocks declined by about 1.9 million barrels and refinery inputs averaged about 17.0 million barrels per day—illustrating that inventory swings, not just headline price moves, are affecting wholesale and retail fuel dynamics.
In early July global benchmarks were trading in a relatively narrow band—Brent around $75–$77 per barrel and U.S. WTI roughly $72–$74 per barrel—as reports of renewed attacks, unclaimed strikes and diplomatic developments pushed short‑term volatility and left futures positioned for a modest weekly gain.