A new statewide survey of Arizona voters finds President Donald Trump at his weakest measured level of job approval in the state since polling on the presidency began. The poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, reports a net job approval rating of -17 for Trump in Arizona and places his approval on handling the economy at a net -27. Those figures represent a marked downturn in the president’s standing with Arizona voters at a time when statewide officials and congressional campaigns are positioning for the summer primary season and the November general election.
Arizona Public Opinion Pulse graphic showing Trump approval in Arizona — latest poll reports job approval net -17 and economy approval net -27.
Mike Noble, the chief executive of the polling firm, described the -17 job approval figure as worse than the rating recorded in the weeks after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, when Trump’s net approval in the state registered at -13. Noble pointed to losses among independent voters as a central factor in the slide. He connected the broader drop in support to what he described as an economic pain point for respondents, singling out higher gasoline prices as a factor that voters say is likely to affect their choices in the general election. The polling firm had previously fielded a separate survey in early May that found nearly 70% of state residents said gas prices would influence how they cast ballots this fall, with higher prices tending to favor Democratic candidates.
The new poll breaks out approval of Trump’s handling of the economy and shows a substantial decline since late winter. Noble Predictive Insights says that in February, Republicans’ approval of Trump on economic issues registered at +63 within the party, but by May that figure had fallen to +43, a 20-point drop. The poll also showed declines in economic approval across party lines: Democrats’ economic approval of the president moved from -81 to -91, and independents’ economic approval shifted from -34 to -44. The firm’s analysis notes the timing of the shift, saying the most significant erosion in economic approvals took place after Feb. 28, when hostilities expanded involving the U.S., Israel and Iran.
Line chart from The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll tracking Trump’s approval trend over recent surveys, with disapproval converging with and edging above approval.
Beyond presidential approval, the survey measured views of state leadership and the broader congressional outlook. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs posts a modestly positive job approval in the poll, with a net rating of +5, while her handling of the state economy is essentially even among respondents. The poll’s author noted that, despite the economic concerns cited by voters, Arizonans are more inclined to attribute current economic conditions to the president than to the governor. That dynamic matters politically because Hobbs is seeking re-election this year; the poll shows the Democratic governor ahead in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with one of the likely Republican nominees.
On the congressional landscape, the poll finds Democrats holding a slim one-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot in a state where Republicans maintain a 7.5-point registration advantage. The shift is driven in part by independents, who in the survey lean toward Democratic congressional candidates by roughly 13 points. The firm noted that roughly a decade ago independents in Arizona tended to favor Republicans, making the present lean toward Democrats a notable change in the state’s political alignment.
The polling organization also reported primary-level findings for the Republican gubernatorial field. In their survey, one U.S. congressman running for the Republican nomination led another by approximately 30 points. The same poll shows Gov. Hobbs running unopposed on the Democratic side ahead of the July 21 primaries. If a general election were held today, the poll results show Hobbs leading that Republican frontrunner by four points. Officials for the campaigns of the incumbent governor and the leading Republican candidate were contacted but did not respond before the poll’s findings were published.
Noble framed the set of results as consequential for both parties’ prospects this fall, observing that a sustained low approval rating for the president in Arizona could create headwinds for Republican candidates down the ballot. The firm’s margin of sampling error for the statewide findings is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, a standard caveat that applies to reported percentages across the various subgroups measured. The poll’s cross-tabs and trend data underline shifts among independents and within party coalitions that the firm says are worth monitoring as both the primary season and the general election campaign progress.
Taken together, the polling data present a portrait of a political environment in Arizona where the president’s approval has weakened, economic approval has deteriorated across party lines, and independent voters are tilting toward Democratic choices on congressional ballots. Those patterns are reflected in the governor’s modestly positive job approval and the narrow Democratic edge on the generic ballot, even as Republican registration retains an overall advantage in the state. The polling firm’s results will join other surveys in shaping campaign strategy and messaging in the run-up to the July primaries and the Nov. 3 general election.